Rightward Shift Driven by Fear of Decline: When Inequality Radicalizes Politics

Initial Situation

How is Germany voting?

Here is the 2026 federal election result (left bars) and the trend in current polling. The current government led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz is formed by the CDU/CSU and the SPD.

Source: Federal election: Latest polling trends in the electoral trend | Sonntagsfrage #btw2029 (Accessed: 10.06.2026) — License Creative Commons CC BY-NC-SA 4.0

What is the economic situation?

Source: wb24-2026-economic-forecast-infographic-highres.jpg | DIW Weekly Report 24/2026

The economically difficult situation, triggered by geopolitical conflicts such as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the subsequent price shocks, and the challenges of economic transformation, has led to deep dissatisfaction in society with the governing politicians. Yet why is it precisely the AfD that is succeeding in capturing the votes of those disappointed by current politics, the previous government, or the system as a whole?

What kind of party is this?

The Alternative for Germany (AfD)

Founded in 2013, generally described as a liberal-conservative party. It quickly transformed, however, into a right-wing populist and even far-right extremist party.

What are the party’s goals?

The AfD demands a reversal in migration policy, focusing on restrictive border controls, mass deportations ("remigration"), and the abolition of the right to asylum. In economic and energy policy, it advocates tax cuts, the elimination of climate protection regulations, and a return to fossil and nuclear energy sources. The party also seeks to weaken the competencies of the European Union in favor of national sovereignty, the abolition of the euro, and a traditional model of family and society.

Is the party democratic?

The party and its state associations are classified by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution as a suspected case of far-right extremism or, in part, as definitively far-right extremist. Many party members have ties to various ultra-right or far-right groups.

There are numerous civil society efforts to have the party reviewed by the Federal Constitutional Court for unconstitutionality (e.g., at afd-verbot.de/beweise or pruef-demos.de). Given these indications, the anti-democratic nature of the party is widely debated in public discourse.

Who truly benefits from the party?

The AfD’s tax-cutting plans would primarily benefit high earners and the wealthy, as progressive taxation would be abolished, the solidarity surcharge would be scrapped, and wealth-related taxes such as inheritance and property taxes would be significantly reduced or completely eliminated. The reduction of climate protection measures and the return to fossil fuels would benefit the fossil fuel industry—and, due to the central role of pipeline gas, particularly Russia.

Who are the voters?

Statistically, the typical AfD voter is often between 25 and 44 years old, lives in rural areas (particularly in eastern Germany), has a low to medium level of formal education, and earns a low to medium income as a worker or is unemployed.

Why eastern Germany?

More than 35 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall and reunification, incomes and wealth in eastern Germany remain significantly lower than in the west. When one overlays a map of election results with income distribution, clear overlaps emerge.

Sources: AfD election results and voters | bpb.de (Accessed: 10.06.2026) — Disposable income of private households | Deutschlandatlas (Accessed: 10.06.2026)

Why is the male worker the focus?

The modern labor market increasingly demands higher educational qualifications. Women and children from academic households statistically benefit disproportionately from this. The societal shift has also seen more women entering the workforce, directly competing with men.

In large parts of eastern Germany, the situation is exacerbated: as companies are strongly represented in western Germany or the metropolitan areas of the east, unemployment remains high in rural regions. Compounding this is the fact that the parental and grandparental generation was scarcely able to build or pass on wealth after reunification, as wages never reached western levels and no wealth was inherited from the socialist GDR. Particularly from rural eastern Germany, young, well-educated women are migrating to major cities. What remains is a significant surplus of men. Among the remaining men, there is a growing longing for a conservative family model (kitchen, church, children).

Socioeconomic factors of the average voter

The prototypical voter in this region, due to low income and no realistic prospect of a significant inheritance, has no chance of homeownership or retirement savings free from existential fears. The acute surplus of women also increases the risk of remaining involuntarily single.

Added to this is occupational precarity: in economically weak regions, jobs are already insecure and are now further threatened by automation, industrial robots, and artificial intelligence (AI). At the same time, formal educational deficits often prevent access to further training that could offer an escape from this dead end.

Why the AfD appeals in this milieu

In this breeding ground of inequality in education, income, wealth, and future prospects, the AfD preys on the simplistic answers of right-wing populism:

• Scapegoating rhetoric over job loss: The fear of unemployment and downward mobility is deliberately projected onto immigrants and climate protection (demands for an immigration freeze and "remigration").
• Redistribution struggles over income: Low personal income is linked to social benefits for refugees and welfare recipients to stoke resentment.
• Compensation for social isolation: The lack of prospects for partnerships and futures is blamed on the "woke", progressive, and academic lifestyle of the major cities. The party caters to the longing for a re-patriarchalization, in which the traditional dominance of men is reactivated and women are reduced to a domestic, mother-centered role.

Can voters be brought back into the democratic spectrum?

Source: Federal election 2025: Voting decision was made out of... | tagesschau.de (Accessed: 11.06.2026)

The data show that the AfD’s electorate is not a homogeneous mass. Two main groups can be identified:

• The ideological core: A portion of the electorate is firmly bound to the party by a closed far-right, racist, and anti-state worldview. This group is effectively unreachable for democratic discourse and rational arguments ("democratically lost").
• Protest voters / the disillusioned: The rest of the voters primarily choose the party out of disappointment, fear for the future, and protest against established politics. They respond to real existing inequalities and the lack of prospects in rural areas.

Conclusion for political practice

Right-wing populism thrives where people feel structurally left behind. Targeted structural and economic policies that reduce inequalities between urban and rural areas, east and west, rich and poor, and highly educated and low-educated, strip populist narratives of their foundation. While the ideological core must remain isolated, protest voters can be won back for democracy through policies that provide material and social security as well as genuine future prospects.